The single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting....
October 30 2012, 3:13 AM
The prevalent tendancy to underweight or ignore distributional information is perhaps the major source of error in forecasting. Planners should therefore make every effort to frame the forecasting problem so as to facilitate ultilizing all the distrubutional information that is available.
This may be the single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting through improved methods. Using such distributional information from other ventures similar to that being forecasted is called taking an "outside view" and is the cure to the planning fallacy.
Daniel Kahneman - Thinking Fast and Slow (Chapter 23)http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0141033576?ie=UTF8&camp=3194&creative=21330&creativeASIN=0141033576&linkCode=shr&tag=theginmum-21&qid=1351590984&sr=8-1