Overly optimist forecasts...
October 30 2012, 3:08 AM
...overly optimistic forecasts of the outcome of a project are found everywhere. Amos and I coined the term planning fallacy to describe plans and forecasts that
- are unrealistically close to the best-case scenarios.
- could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases
Daniel Kahneman - Thinking Fast and Slow (Chapter 23) http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0141033576?ie=UTF8&camp=3194&creative=21330&creativeASIN=0141033576&linkCode=shr&tag=theginmum-21&qid=1351590984&sr=8-1